The freight market is sending shippers an unusual combination of signals: freight volumes are not booming, but transportation costs and capacity pressure remain elevated. The clearest theme is that the current market is increasingly being driven by supply rather than demand. Fewer available trucks and drivers, carrier exits, higher diesel costs and stronger industrial activity are keeping upward pressure on transportation costs even as some lanes experience the normal post-July seasonal easing.
For shippers, this is not a market that calls for panic buying of capacity. It does, however, reward earlier tendering, stronger carrier relationships, lane-by-lane pricing strategies and disciplined carrier selection.
In this edition of my report, I'll dig into some of the factors driving higher rates, and tighter truck capacity, and talk bout what shippers can do to plan ahead before the holiday crunch.
Recent data continue to support the argument that the truckload market has moved away from the oversupplied conditions of 2023–2025. FreightWaves' latest analysis describes capacity as tight even though overall freight demand remains uneven.
The latest U.S. Bank data reinforce the point. During Q1, shipment volume was essentially flat—down 0.3% in the 4th quarter of 2025 and up only 0.6% year over year—yet shipper transportation spending increased 12.9% quarter over quarter and 21.8% year over year. U.S. Bank characterized the market as one increasingly shaped by shrinking capacity rather than accelerating demand.
Recent carrier commentary suggests that pressure is continuing. Schneider National CEO Jim Filter said transportation costs are likely to continue rising because of driver availability constraints. Dry-van spot rates were approximately 39% higher year over year at the end of July, excluding fuel surcharges, according to the Wall Street Journal report.
Fuel continues to amplify the capacity issue.
The latest available U.S. Energy Information Administration data show national on-highway diesel averaging $5.348 per gallon on August 3. That was another 3.5-cent weekly increase and approximately $1.55 per gallon higher than a year earlier.
The increase matters even when linehaul rates temporarily soften. Fuel surcharges ultimately flow through transportation budgets, meaning shippers can experience rising all-in costs even when the underlying spot market is relatively stable.
One of the more important developments for freight demand occurred outside trucking itself.
U.S. manufacturing activity jumped sharply in July. The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 55.6, up from 53.3 in June and its strongest reading in more than four years. New orders, exports and backlogs increased, while manufacturing employment expanded for the first time in 33 months.
This is particularly important for dry van, flatbed, LTL and industrial freight. If manufacturing expansion continues while truck capacity remains constrained, freight demand does not need to grow dramatically before pricing pressure reappears.
The Class 8 truck market provides another indicator of improving carrier economics. ACT Research reported 31,751 North American Class 8 orders in June, more than triple the prior-year level. Tractor orders alone reached 22,041 units, nearly four times the year-earlier level. ACT attributes much of that rebound to improving freight rates and tighter capacity.
Late-summer produce continues influencing refrigerated equipment positioning. California, the Pacific Northwest and several Upper Midwest markets remain important sources of seasonal produce freight.
The biggest impact is not necessarily a nationwide reefer shortage. Instead, produce creates localized capacity imbalances as trucks reposition toward higher-paying agricultural freight.
For food and beverage shippers, that can mean a lane that looks relatively normal one week becomes significantly more expensive the next.
Another 2026 change has received less attention from shippers but is worth watching.
New Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration broker financial-responsibility requirements took effect January 16. Among other provisions, if a broker's available financial security falls below the required $75,000 and is not replenished within seven calendar days, FMCSA can suspend the broker's operating authority.
A low freight quote has little value if the provider lacks the financial strength, carrier relationships or operational infrastructure required to execute the shipment.
The market does not justify abandoning contracted transportation strategies and moving everything to the spot market. It does justify becoming more deliberate.
Shippers should focus on five things over the next several weeks:
In a tightening market, the objective should not simply be finding a truck. It should be finding the right truck at a competitive market price without compromising service or carrier quality.
OverDrive Logistics combines market intelligence with an established carrier network and transportation solutions spanning truckload, refrigerated, flatbed, LTL and specialized freight. OverDrive emphasizes long-term carrier relationships built around communication, integrity and dependable service.
That becomes particularly valuable when capacity tightens. Rather than waiting until a shipment is on the dock and searching for whichever truck remains available, OverDrive can help shippers evaluate lanes proactively, identify potential capacity problems, compare current pricing against market conditions and secure dependable carriers before those markets become constrained.
For shippers, the goal is straightforward: use market information to determine where you should negotiate aggressively and where protecting capacity is more important than squeezing out the final few dollars of rate.
The next few weeks should provide an important indication of how strong the freight market will be heading into fall. The most important signals are diesel prices, dry-van and reefer tender rejections, continued carrier and driver attrition, manufacturing freight, late-summer produce movements and the beginning of fall retail positioning.
The underlying message remains consistent: freight demand does not have to become exceptionally strong for rates to rise. The market simply needs enough freight to encounter a trucking industry that now has considerably less excess capacity.
Prepared by OverDrive Logistics for customer education and market awareness.
Source references include ACT Research, FreightWaves, Reuters,The Wall Street Journal, EIA, TIA, DAT, SONAR, U.S. Bancorp, and industry reporting.