September 8, 2026 | Shipper Update | 5–8 Minute Read
Two developing issues should be near the top of every shipper's transportation agenda: record-high diesel prices and the potential freight disruption associated with a strengthening El Niño this winter.
The national retail average for diesel has climbed to approximately $5.88 per gallon, surpassing the previous record established in 2022. Meanwhile, NOAA reports that El Niño is strengthening and gives it a greater than 90% probability of becoming a very strong event during fall and winter 2026–27.
Neither development occurs in isolation. Truckload capacity is already relatively tight, with national tender rejections moving back above 14% around Labor Day. Higher fuel costs increase carrier operating expenses immediately, while significant winter weather can remove productive capacity from the market almost overnight.
For shippers, the combination creates the potential for a difficult transportation environment: higher fuel surcharges, increased spot rates, reduced truck availability, longer transit times and greater service risk.
The biggest immediate story in U.S. transportation is fuel.
The national retail diesel average reached $5.97 per gallon on September 7, according to data reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That represents a new nominal record, exceeding the previous high of roughly $5.82 established in June 2022.
The increase has been extraordinary.
Before military action involving Iran began earlier this year, diesel was approximately $3.76 per gallon. It has since increased by more than $2.00 per gallon — roughly 55% — in about six months.
The government's weekly EIA benchmark, which is calculated differently and published on a different schedule, was $5.599 per gallon on August 31. Regional differences were dramatic:
The daily retail market has moved even higher since those weekly figures were published.
The primary drivers include higher crude-oil prices, Middle East geopolitical instability, constrained global supply routes, refinery economics and low distillate inventories.
Brent crude ended last week around $96 per barrel, while WTI approached $92. Continued instability involving Iran and disruptions affecting Middle Eastern oil flows remain major risks.
Diesel inventories are particularly important because trucking isn't the only industry competing for distillate fuel. Agriculture consumes substantial amounts of diesel during harvest, while heating-oil demand begins increasing as winter approaches.
That competition could keep pressure on diesel even if crude oil stabilizes.
Fuel doesn't simply affect trucking companies. Eventually, it works its way through virtually every supply chain.
At $5.88 per gallon, a tractor averaging approximately 6.5 MPG consumes roughly $0.90 of diesel for every mile traveled before considering the truck, driver, insurance, maintenance, tires or any other operating expense.
For a 1,000-mile shipment, that's roughly $900 in fuel alone.
That makes fuel surcharge methodology, routing and loaded-versus-empty miles increasingly important when evaluating transportation costs.
There is another important aspect of the diesel story.
The freight market was already tightening before diesel reached record levels.
National truckload tender rejections moved back above 14.5% over Labor Day weekend, compared with approximately 13.5% in late August. That's an increase of over 8% in just a few days, a much faster jump than the comparable Labor Day increases of the previous three years.
This indicates that available truck capacity remains sensitive to relatively small increases in freight demand.
That makes today's fuel environment particularly important.
When diesel increases rapidly, smaller and less-capitalized carriers can experience significant cash-flow pressure. Carriers may also become more selective about freight that requires excessive deadhead miles, long dwell times or repositioning into unfavorable markets.
The result can be a freight market where capacity becomes tighter even without a dramatic increase in freight volume.
For shippers, that makes lane-level pricing intelligence increasingly valuable.
Fuel isn't the only major transportation risk appearing on the horizon.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Advisory and reports that El Niño continues to strengthen. Most importantly, NOAA currently estimates a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026–27.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies have already exceeded +2°C in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific — a significant signal of the developing event. El Niño alters atmospheric circulation and the jet stream, influencing storm tracks, precipitation and temperatures across North America.
Historically, El Niño winters tend to favor:
Southern U.S. — Wetter and often cooler
The southern tier from California through Texas and the Gulf Coast toward the Southeast generally has increased odds of wetter-than-normal conditions.
The Gulf Coast signal is particularly notable. Historically, wetter-than-average conditions from Texas through Florida have occurred during more than 80% of El Niño events.
California and Southwest — Increased precipitation risk
Strong El Niño events can significantly increase the probability of above-normal precipitation in California and portions of the Southwest.
Northern U.S. and Pacific Northwest — Often milder
Northern portions of the country and the Pacific Northwest frequently experience warmer-than-normal winter conditions during El Niño.
These are historical tendencies rather than guarantees. El Niño changes the probability of certain weather patterns; it does not mean every region will experience severe weather.
For freight transportation, however, the increased potential for significant precipitation, flooding, snow and ice along southern transportation corridors deserves attention.
Weather can disrupt trucking faster than almost any economic event.
We saw an excellent example earlier this year.
Winter Storm Fern in January 2026 affected transportation across more than 40 states. Snow, ice and extreme cold disrupted major freight corridors across the Southern Plains, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
National truckload rejection rates jumped from approximately 9.75% to 12.19% in one week.
Spot rates also increased.
The reason is simple:
A truck that normally travels 500–600 miles per day may travel substantially fewer miles during snow or ice. Some trucks stop operating altogether. Facilities close, drivers run out of available hours, appointments are missed, equipment becomes displaced, and backlogs accumulate.
Then, when roads reopen, several days of freight can suddenly compete for the same available trucks. This is why freight capacity can tighten dramatically even while overall shipment volumes decline.
FreightWaves has found that winter storms have produced larger transportation disruptions in recent years than many major tropical systems.
That is particularly important heading into this winter because the freight market already has less excess capacity available to absorb disruption.
The biggest transportation story may ultimately be the interaction between several factors:
Together, these factors could lead to greater volatility in the freight market.
Consider what happens when a major winter system develops. Drivers may avoid affected markets, transit speeds decline, and carriers begin rejecting contracted freight. As spot-market demand increases, fuel consumption per productive mile rises because of congestion, idling, detours, and repositioning. Trucks may become stranded or displaced from normal freight patterns, even as shippers still need products moved.
This combination can produce sharp, short-term increases in spot rates and significant service disruptions. Because the current market is already relatively tight, the impact of a major winter storm could potentially be greater than it would be in a market with abundant excess capacity.
Shippers don't need to panic about winter transportation capacity in September, but they should begin preparing.
1. Identify weather-sensitive lanes.
Pay particular attention to freight moving through major Southern, Southwestern, Midwestern and Northeastern corridors where snow, ice, flooding or heavy precipitation can disrupt truck movements.
2. Increase tender lead time.
When weather is approaching, additional lead time gives transportation providers more opportunities to secure quality capacity before the market tightens.
3. Evaluate fuel separately from linehaul.
Understand how your fuel surcharge works and compare transportation providers using total cost rather than base freight rate.
4. Build backup capacity before you need it.
The worst time to search for an alternative carrier or logistics provider is after a storm has already disrupted your primary transportation network.
5. Use current market intelligence.
National freight averages don't tell the entire story. Capacity can be abundant in one market and extremely tight several hundred miles away.
Markets like this highlight the difference between simply finding a truck and actively managing transportation.
OverDrive Logistics works with shippers to identify the best combination of price, capacity, service and carrier quality for each shipment.
With nationwide capabilities across dry van, refrigerated, flatbed and LTL freight, OverDrive can help shippers respond quickly as market conditions change.
That becomes particularly valuable when fuel and weather create regional transportation disruptions.
OverDrive can use current freight-market intelligence to help determine whether a rate reflects actual capacity conditions — rather than simply accepting the first available truck price.
OverDrive maintains a nationwide carrier network and uses Highway to screen and onboard carriers, along with state-of-the-art technology for shipment visibility and real-time tracking.
During severe weather, access to multiple qualified carriers becomes particularly important because individual fleets may be unable or unwilling to service affected markets.
When significant weather develops, transportation planning should begin before the storm arrives.
OverDrive can help customers identify affected lanes, secure capacity earlier, adjust pickup schedules when appropriate and evaluate alternate transportation strategies.
Instead of searching separately for dry van, refrigerated, flatbed or LTL capacity, shippers can work with OverDrive to evaluate multiple options and determine the best solution based on price, transit time and service requirements.
The objective isn't simply to find the cheapest truck.
It's to find the best transportation solution at the best available market price — while protecting the shipment and the customer's supply chain.
Three indicators deserve particularly close attention over the next several weeks:
Diesel: Can national diesel break through $6.00 per gallon, and how quickly will today's fuel increases work their way into freight pricing?
El Niño: NOAA's next ENSO update is scheduled for September 10. We'll be watching closely for changes in the expected strength of the event and emerging winter precipitation patterns.
Truck Capacity: Tender rejection rates above 14% indicate that the truckload market has relatively little room for disruption. We'll watch whether rejections normalize after Labor Day or remain elevated heading toward Q4.
For shippers, the message is increasingly clear:
Fuel is expensive. Capacity is tighter. Winter risk is building.
The companies that plan transportation proactively — rather than reacting after capacity disappears — will be in the best position to protect both service and transportation costs this winter.
Prepared by OverDrive Logistics for customer education and market awareness.
Source references include FreightWaves, EIA, SONAR, NOAA, U.S. Energy Information Administration, AAA, and industry reporting.